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☆ JPMorgan is staying steadfastly bearish, saying market ignoring substantial risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan is sticking to its bearish thesis amid a more optimistic outlook on Wall Street, saying investors are ignoring key market risks. The Wall Street firm is an outlier among the major banks when it comes to year-end forecasts. As of Monday's close, JPMorgan expects the S & P 500 will tumble more than 17% to its 2024 target of 4,200, according to CNBC's market strategist survey . The S & P 500 has repeatedly notched all-time highs on the back of the artificial intelligence trade. The AI beneficiary, which has been a major driver for the S & P 500's gains this year, could drag the benchmark should it start to sell off.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Kolanovic, NVDA Organizations: JPMorgan, Bank, America's, Nvidia Locations: Gaza, Ukraine

☆ Markets are hitting record highs. And economists like El-Erian and Krugman can't shake off their fears
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stellar prices for gold have also stolen investor attention, with the precious metal scaling a new record of over $2,100. The record-breaking numbers for markets, however, haven't stopped some investors from worrying about three key issues. Inflation resurgenceAfter months of cooling, U.S inflation is proving itself to be more stubborn than experts had predicted. That's despite the Federal Reserve embarking on an aggressive monetary policy campaign over the past year, in a bid to tame consumer price pressures from their 40-year highs. Ariel Investments' Vice Chair Charlie Bobrinskoy told CNBC markets are not focused on China's residential real estate problems.

Persons: Michael M, haven't, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Mark Zandi's, Mark Zandi, Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, Doom, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Erian, Ariel, Charlie Bobrinskoy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Federal, stoke, Allianz, Bloomberg, CNBC, El, Ariel Investments Locations: New York City, U.S, China

☆ Bitcoin's record-breaking run could postpone Fed rate cuts, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The soaring price of bitcoin could delay the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates, according to JPMorgan. The bank said signs of froth in risk assets like bitcoin could lead to higher for longer interest rates. AdvertisementThe record rally in bitcoin could lead the Federal Reserve to delay its planned interest rate cuts later this year, according to JPMorgan. That froth could ultimately drive the Fed to hold off on its planned interest rate cuts, which are often stimulative for risk assets, as it could unleash another round of inflation. "This may keep monetary policy higher for longer, as premature rate cutting risks further inflating asset prices or causing another leg up in inflation," Kolanovic said.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Christopher Waller Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Locations: bitcoin

☆ A fund manager beating 98% of his peers over the last 10 years breaks down why the stock market resembles the 'Nifty 50' bubble of the 1970s, when the market's biggest names got crushed as inflation s
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Disco is backOthers have also started to compare today's market and the 1970s' "Nifty Fifty." AdvertisementJPMorgan's Chief Global Strategist Marko Kolanovic also said in a note on Wednesday that fiscal spending and inflation could resemble the 1970s landscape. Similar to the 1970s, there are currently 3 active geopolitical conflict zones – eastern Europe, Middle East, and South China Sea," Kolanovic said. Kolanovic included in his note the chart below, which shows the correlation between inflation and the performance of the S&P 500.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Gundlach, Cole Smead, Smead, Sears Roebuck, Alphabet's, Nvidia's, Microsoft's, Jeremy Siegel, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, " Rosenberg, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Bank of America's, Treasury, Nasdaq, DoubleLine, Investments, Business, Morningstar, Microsoft, Nvidia, Xerox Locations: Europe, Middle East, South China

☆ JPMorgan's Kolanovic doubles down on bearish stance, says a 'second inflation wave' could take hold
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market's strong start to 2024 could be short lived as the door for inflation to come back remains wide open, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. The S & P 500 is coming off its first weekly loss in six weeks. Year to date, the S & P 500 is up about 4% and reached an all-time high earlier this month above 5,000. "Optimism now is quite high and some describe the current regime as 'parabolic stock markets' and 'platinum-locks,'" he said. According to CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey , JPMorgan has an S & P 500 target of 4,200.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Pro's, Survey, JPMorgan Locations: Japan, Germany, Europe

☆ The stock market debate is trapped in the '90s with both bulls and bears drawing comparisons
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Value-investing asset manager GMO last week published a study showing that the top ten S & P 500 stocks by size have handily beaten an equal-weighted pool of the other 490 for several years now. Neither is Microsoft, a useful indicator give that it was the largest stock by market cap both in December 1999 and today. Indeed, today the stock market has done well even as expectations for the speed and depth of rate cuts this year have diminished. (Industrials are leading, the equal-weight S & P is up 19% from October and there were 204 new 52-week highs on the NYSE Friday over 24 new lows.) The S & P 500 uptrend has for weeks targeted the 5050 area, as an immediate culmination point, and it's just about there.

Persons: Morgan, Marko Kolanovic, —, Janus, Stocks, it's, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan, Jerome Powell, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jurrien, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Nvidia, Cisco, Nasdaq, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, Fed, Netscape, Boston, NYSE Locations: Russia, It's, Orange County, Calif

☆ JPMorgan says investors wishing for early and aggressive rate cuts will be disappointed
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Rising geopolitical headwinds and the potential for political turmoil could combine to thwart investors' hopes for the Federal Reserve to enact sharp interest rate cuts this year, according to JPMorgan Chase strategists. Markets have been betting that the Fed likely will start lowering its benchmark short-term borrowing rate by May or even as early as March. JPMorgan's investment team said the calculus could be important for investors as stocks and other asset classes look for direction. In recent days, multiple Fed officials have made remarks insisting that they are in no hurry to start cutting rates. For the full year, traders have gone from a strong chance of six cuts to a coin-flip between five and six.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Chase, JPMorgan, U.S, Fed, European Central Bank, Atlanta Fed, Federal, Market, Traders, Commerce Department Locations: 1H24

☆ Strategists say red hot stock market rally is due for a breather
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-20 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The equity market is due for a cooldown, according to several strategists, who are telling clients to begin positioning themselves defensively in preparation for a slow-growth earnings environment next year. The S & P 500 has rallied almost 24% this year, but is up 11% in the fourth quarter alone. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , for example, is up 24% this quarter, but still down 12% for the year. According to Calvasina, industrials are the most overvalued sector in the S & P 500, while energy and communication services offer the most attractive valuations. .GSPHC YTD mountain S & P Health Care sector performance this year.

Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, haven't, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Barclays, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Big Tech, Regional Banking, RBC Capital, P Health Care, JPMorgan Locations: Krishna, SPX, Europe

☆ This exchange is expanding its short-term options portfolio as 'zero-day' bets boom
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While options contracts historically expire on Fridays, the most popular stock indexes now have contracts that expire on every day of the week. This creates the ability for "zero-day to expiration," or "0DTE," options trading. The new funds come as trading in options that are about to expire has expanded dramatically as a share of the options market in recent years. The rise of short-term options trading has created split opinions on Wall Street. "In my mind, 0DTE has always been a risk day, but we've now spread that risk out across an entire month.

Persons: Michael M, IWM, Marko Kolanovic, 0DTE, you've, Randy Frederick Organizations: Nasdaq, Getty, Trust, Securities, Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve, Schwab Center, Financial Research, CNBC Locations: New York City, Cboe

REUTERS/Andrew Kelly Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Most key global stock indexes are forecast to rise modestly over the coming year, closing 2024 below record highs, while a slim majority of stock market experts polled by Reuters expected their markets to touch new peaks within the next six months. However, only a handful of the 15 top stock indexes were predicted to trade at record peaks by end-2024, based on a wider Nov. 9-22 poll of more than 120 stock market experts. LOWER BOND YIELDSFor now, markets are pricing in a series of 2024 rate cuts, which is sending bond yields lower and stock prices higher. "Falling bond yields are being interpreted by equity markets as a positive in the near-term," said Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at J.P. Morgan. Canada's main stock index was expected to rise less than previously thought over the coming year as a slowdown in the global economy weighs on the outlook for corporate earnings.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan, Hari Kishan, Indradip Ghosh, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BENGALURU, Monday's, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Toronto

☆ JPMorgan's stock guru Kolanovic says don't buy the market bounce, stocks are overvalued and consumer is in trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The S & P 500 is up more than 7% in November, but JPMorgan wrote to clients this week that the rebound is just a head fake. The biggest bank in the country thinks stocks are expensive and consumer spending is set to slow. Rather, "a significant part of this move was technical in nature, driven by momentum strategies and short covering." The hurdles for the stock market are manifold, according to JPMorgan. Instead, JPMorgan recommends a defensive posture in its model portfolio, underweighting stocks and bonds and overweighting cash and commodities.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Recent stock gains may have been too 'explosive,' but falling bond yields should continue to boost equities, technical strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Technical strategist Katie Stockton said that recent stock gains have been "explosive." But falling bond yields should continue to provide a boost to stocks if the pullback persists. The surge in equities, Wilson explained, is mostly a consequence of falling bond yields. Key government bond yields have pulled back sharply from 16-year highs in recent weeks. She said signs flashing in the TLT Treasury ETF point to an extended period of bond yields correcting from recent highs.

Persons: Katie Stockton, Stockton, —, November's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, CNBC Wednesday, TLT Treasury Locations: Stockton, TLT

☆ US stocks climb as investors look to continue momentum after best trading week of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks climbed as traders tried to keep the rally going following the best week of 2023. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks traded higher Monday after each of the major indexes recorded their strongest weekly performances of the year last week. "We think last week's rally in stocks was mainly a function of the fall in back-end Treasury yields," Wilson wrote in a Monday note.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Mike Wilson, Wilson, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

☆ The stock market's latest rally is about to fizzle amid a barrage of concerns, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market's latest rally is set to fizzle, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. He highlighted a number of looming concerns for investors, from valuations to higher-for-longer interest rates. AdvertisementAdvertisementLast week's stock market rally is about to fizzle, according to JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic. While stock market investors would like to see interest rates drop, the reason behind any potential cut is what matters the most. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson reiterated his view on Monday that the recent rally in stocks is nothing more than a bear market rally.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, —, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Organizations: Service, Markets, Federal Reserve Locations: fizzle

☆ After a miserable October, the setup for stocks in November is looking better
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a miserable October, the setup for November is looking better. Barring a huge rally Tuesday, October will be the third-consecutive down month for the S & P 500 — that's unusual. 1 month for the S & P 500. It's just that stocks have sold off during earnings season because of the cautious outlook being projected on many earnings calls. The chances the S & P 500 would be down four months in a row is very small.

Persons: —, That's, Nicholas Colas, Colas, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, It's, hasn't, Jonathan Krinsky Locations: DataTrek, Israel, BTIG

☆ Banks in Japan are primed to do well going forward. What's driving them and how to play the trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

One place in the world stands as a beacon for investors in bank stocks: Japan. Japanese banks have outperformed in a year when U.S. banks have come under pressure both from rapidly rising interest rates and the regional banking crisis last spring. "We've been bullish on Japanese banks for a long time," said Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro. Part of what's driving the bull case for Japanese banks is the country's yield curve. While the U.S. and other developed economies contend with an inverted yield curve that's weighing on financial profit margins, Japan continues to have a positive yield curve.

Persons: We've, Chen Zhao, Zhao, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Japan's, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, Treasury, Japan Post Bank, Chiba Bank, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, Resona Holdings Locations: Japan, U.S, EWJ

☆ Higher stocks and rates rising this fast? Why history shows this is usually untenable
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A higher-for-longer interest rate environment could mean a "stalemate" for equities after their long upward march in 2023. However, history indicates that's unlikely to continue, according to Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro. He expects stocks will trade sideways for some time as investors weigh competing narratives around a robust economy with the pressures of higher bond yields. Of course, stocks bounced back the following year when the Federal Reserve began to cut rates. … But at the same time, you have rising borrowing costs, rising discount factors that actually tamp down asset values."

Persons: Stocks, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Komal, Kumar, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Federal Reserve, Kumar Global

☆ JPMorgan's top strategist says buy more gold, stay underweight stocks because of high rates, geopolitics
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan's top strategist is telling investors to buy more gold and remain underweight stocks. All three major averages remain higher this month, shrugging off higher yields and the breakout of the Israel-Hamas conflict. "Our outlook is likely to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain deeply restrictive, valuations expensive, and the overhang of geopolitical risks persists," Kolanovic wrote. In fact, the strategist expects the upward march in equities is 'unsustainable' in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Equities are up YTD mostly on multiple expansion while real rates and cost of capital are moving deeper into restric-tive territory," Kolanovic wrote.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Locations: Israel

☆ S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2024 are overly optimistic, JPMorgan's quant guru says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is poised to disappoint investors over the coming months and into next year because S&P 500 earnings growth estimates are too optimistic, according to JPMorgan's quant guru Marko Kolanovic. Wall Street consensus expects S&P 500 earnings per share to deliver 4% year-over-year growth in the third-quarter, according to the note. Kolanovic doesn't expect much to change in 2024, arguing that Wall Street analysts are still too optimistic about the potential for earnings growth. Consensus estimates suggests that the S&P 500 will grow its earnings per share by 12% next year. Kolanovic is sticking by his year-end S&P 500 price target of 4,200, pointing to potential downside of 4% from current levels.

Persons: JPMorgan's, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — Organizations: Service, PMI, Federal Reserve

☆ Beware of these expensive stocks that analysts don't like
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

For context, the longer-term P/E ratio for the past 12 months of the S & P 500 is about 21 times trailing earnings. That compares to a five-year average P/E ratio of 19.87. The life insurer's 12-month trailing P/E ratio came in at 31.99, compared to its five-year average P/E ratio of 13.62. For context, the longer-term P/E ratio for the past 12 months of the S&P 500 is about 21 times trailing earnings. The life insurer's 12-month trailing P/E ratio came in at 31.99, compared to its five-year average P/E ratio of 13.62.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, David Vogt, Tyson Foods, Jefferies, Henry Schein, Michael Bloom, Darla Mercado, Angela Weiss, HSIC Henry Schein, MOH Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, IBM, UBS, Premier U.S, Tyson, Prudential Financial, Jefferies, Prudential, CNBC, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Molina Healthcare, Pinnacle West, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty, Business Machines Corp, Healthcare, Progressive Corp, Pinnacle West Capital Corp, TSN Tyson Foods, Business Machines Corp IBM, Target Premier U.S, Tyson Foods Inc TSN, Prudential Financial Inc

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The September jobs report is key
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Bracing for the jobs reportU.S. stocks dipped slightly Thursday as investors braced for the September job report coming out today. JPMorgan Chase's Marko Kolanovic thinks the S&P 500 might be slammed by a 20% sell-off if high interest rates persist. In other words, the gap between cheap and expensive stocks is larger than usual — which gives value investors a "tremendous opportunity."

Persons: Hong, Tencent, JPMorgan Chase's Marko Kolanovic, I'm, Bill Nygren, Nygren Organizations: CNBC, Treasury, Administration, European Union Chamber of Commerce Locations: Asia, Pacific, China

☆ JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic braces for 20% market plunge, delivers recession warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is bracing for a 20% sell-off to hit the S&P 500. According to the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer, high interest rates are creating a breaking point for stocks — and choosing cash at a 5.5% return in money market and short-term Treasurys is a key protection strategy right now. "I'm not sure how we're going to avoid it [recession] if we stay at this level of interest rates," the firm's chief market strategist and global research co-head told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Thursday. He indicates a near-term bounce is still possible because a lot hinges on economic reports over the next few months. It could be 20% downside."

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, I'm, CNBC's, Kolanovic Organizations: Institutional, famer

☆ JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic on recession watch, braces for 20% plunge in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic on recession watch, braces for 20% plunge in stocksMarko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chief Market Strategist and Co-Head of Global Research, joins 'Fast Money' to talk his recession prediction, Where the Federal Reserve stands with interest rates, mega-cap performance compared to mid-sized stocks and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Global Research, Federal

☆ Stock market carnage isn't over yet as soaring bond yields send investors into 'extreme fear' mode
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market isn't going to recover from its recent rout soon as three headwinds remain, according to JPMorgan. The bank highlighted that valuations are still too high, and interest rates are too restrictive. Investors have entered "extreme fear" mode as interest rates surge to a new cycle-high. "Our cautious outlook will likely remain in place as long as interest rates remain deeply restrictive, valuations expensive, and the overhang of geopolitical risks persists," JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has entered "extreme fear" territory over the past week as investors fret about high interest rates.

Persons: —, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Service, CNN

☆ The one thing in markets everyone should be watching
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The 10-Year US Treasury yield is arguably the most important thing to watch right now for investors. The 10-Year yield has soared to levels not seen since 2007, and that's having a big impact on stock prices. Here's what you need to know about what bond yields are doing to markets and the economy. Rising bond yields are also thrashing the bond market, as bond prices fall when yields rise. AdvertisementAdvertisementHigher interest rates also means higher credit card rates, leading to a rise in delinquencies in recent months.

Persons: —, It's, Ray Dalio, Bill Ackman, Bill Gross, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Treasury, Service, Treasury Bond ETF, Fed, Pershing, CNBC Locations: delinquencies

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